05/04/2022
SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk for SW OK. We have two areas to watch for storm development this afternoon. First area is SW or south central OK. If discrete supercells can form, storms will pose a tornado threat late afternoon and early evening. These storms would move NE and they could affect the OKC metro area. As long as the warm front gets to the metro there will be the threat for tornadoes, these storms are not a guarantee. Models vary on solutions. At the same time supercells will be going up on the dry line in the Texas panhandle along the triple point. These will track east and moving into SW OK this evening. This is the reason for the moderate risk. These storms will be capable of producing strong tornadoes and giant hail. They will eventually transition to a squall line as the push east and this will affect OKC with damaging winds and still possible tornadoes and hail. Todays risk of severe weather is still dependent how far north the warm front pushes. It's moving through southern OK now. Generally it looks like it sets up along I-40, so the tornado threat would be along I-40 and south. North of the front severe storms will still be possible just not the tornado threat. Another topic to touch on is flash flooding. Moderate flash flood threat for a good portion of the state including OKC and Tulsa. With multiple rounds of storms. Seen models spit out 4-5" pockets of rain. So overall very active day. Will be a good day to stay weather aware. Basically anytime after 3pm there is the threat for severe weather. With not much of cap some storms could even go earlier. Stay safe and I'll have more updates later.
