08/25/2025
Green coffee bean prices continue to rise. Why? Many factors, climate, shifting production goals (production battles between Vietnam and Brazil), increased consumer demand in Asia, and now US import tariffs. Will Toltec have to raise prices accordingly? Sadly, yes. We have been very restrained with price increases since C19 but we have to raise them in the next couple weeks. The big uncertainty is by how much. We are trending market economics closely to see where things may or may not go.
"Coffee prices on Thursday extended their sharp two-week-long rally, with arabica coffee posting a 3-month high and robusta posting a 2.75-month high. Weather concerns in Brazil have sparked fund buying of coffee futures. On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended August 16. Reports of damage to some of Brazil's coffee crop from last week's frost are also boosting prices.
Coffee prices also have support on concerns about tighter US coffee supplies, as American buyers are voiding new contracts on purchases of Brazilian coffee beans due to the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazilian exports to the US. That is tightening the coffee supply in the US market since about a third of unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.
Coffee prices have moved higher over the past two weeks after Brazil's Trade Ministry reported on August 6 that Brazil's July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT. In related bullish news released last Wednesday, Brazil's green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, according to exporter group Cecafe. Cecafe said July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y. Cecafe said Brazil's July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags"
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