07/16/2026
The smoke has reached the Apostle Islands, and the question everyone is asking is when does it leave. Here is the honest answer, based on the DNR, the National Weather Service in Duluth, and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.
Where we are right now. Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Sawyer, Washburn, and Burnett counties are under a Very Unhealthy PM2.5 advisory, the worst air in Wisconsin, with hourly readings that can touch Hazardous. The smoke is so thick it is actually cooling us down: the South Shore was dropped from the heat advisory today because the plume is blocking the sun.
Thursday: no relief. Winds go nearly calm, which sounds nice but is the worst case for smoke, because there is nothing to move it out. NWS Duluth is saying to expect smoke at least into Thursday, and the Wisconsin advisory that expires at 11 am Thursday is very likely to be extended for the north. Minnesota has already extended theirs into Friday, and we are directly downwind.
Thursday night into Friday: the first real chance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through, roughly a 30 to 40 percent chance. Rain is the best smoke scrubber there is, and where storms track, air will improve noticeably behind them. Friday still starts smoky, with east winds slowly building in the afternoon that begin pushing cleaner air our way.
Saturday: the pattern change. A cold front sweeps through and should flush the remaining smoke out of northern Wisconsin. That is the best bet for a genuinely clearer weekend. The asterisk: that front comes down from Canada, and depending on how the fires behave, it can carry a fresh wave of smoke behind it.
The bigger picture nobody can forecast around: these fires in the Minnesota Arrowhead and Ontario were sparked by lightning, they are still growing, and nothing short of sustained rain up there puts them out. Until that happens, every stretch of north or northwest wind can reload the smoke over the lake. Expect this to come and go for a while.
Bottom line: gradual improvement starting Friday, best odds of blue sky Saturday and Sunday, no guarantees beyond that. Check your real time air at fire.airnow.gov, and we will post the DNR update Thursday morning the moment it drops.
