06/16/2026
⛈️ Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across Southern Ontario on Tuesday
Heads up! We’re monitoring the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms across a large portion of Southern Ontario on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
This includes parts of Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe, and Central Ontario, including areas around Lake Simcoe.
Scattered pop-up thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early to mid afternoon and continue into the evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding how intense these storms may become, but the environment appears supportive of a few marginally severe storms.
At this point, the primary threats appear to be damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding, especially where slow-moving storms repeatedly track over the same area. Small hail is also possible with the strongest cells.
As for the tornado risk, it remains quite low based on the latest data, but cannot be completely ruled out. The greatest potential would be across Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Leamington and Chatham, where a somewhat more favourable environment may develop. Even there, confidence remains low.
We’re currently working on a detailed forecast that will be published later tonight or early Tuesday as newer data becomes available. In the meantime, we’ve put together a preliminary map to give you an early look at where storms could develop.
The risk area currently includes Windsor, Chatham, Sarnia, London, Goderich, Woodstock, Kitchener, Hamilton, Guelph, Orangeville, Toronto, Newmarket, Barrie, Orillia, Collingwood and Owen Sound.
Keep in mind that any severe storms that develop are expected to be very isolated. Not everyone within the highlighted area will see a storm, and the vast majority of thunderstorms on Tuesday should remain below severe limits.
More details soon!
- Brennen
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