13/09/2022
THIRD LA NINA DECLARED
The Bureau of Meterology (BoM) has now declared a third consecutive La Nina Event.
La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer. Current Models indicate this La Niña event may peak during the spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is also continuing, with climate models suggesting that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event is typically associated with above average spring rainfall for much of Australia.
When a La Niña and negative IOD combine, it further increases the likelihood of above average rainfall over Australia, particularly in the eastern half of the continent.
In addition, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a positive phase and is likely to be mostly positive for the coming three months. During the spring months, a positive SAM has a wetting influence for parts of eastern New South Wales and far eastern Victoria.
It is worth pointing out that no two La Niña events are the same and just because we experienced flooding during the last La Niña event does not guarantee we will see more flooding in the coming months.
Council is however pre-emptively planning for a possible return of wetter conditions and is doing all we can to prepare the shire should this eventuate, including by focusing on additional vegetation management activities and extra drainage works in known problem areas.
More details: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/