14/07/2026
https://www.facebook.com/share/1H1z5vg4T4/
⚠️I have some new, highly concerning data to discuss with you. If it is to be believed, then we could see catastrophic flooding unfold on a more widespread basis TUESDAY NIGHT into WEDNESDAY MORNING. You need to be paying attention to every forecast update as we go forward.
I'll first note that this is a very complicated atmosphere. Multiple mid-level disturbances moving through Texas are generating storms that then create their own circulations (mesoscale convective vortices) that then dance around each other with ripple effects through the rest of the forecast. Uncertainty is high.
Still, with the water-logged atmosphere above our heads and more than enough lift to go around, we can't ignore what this new morning data is suggesting.
At some point this afternoon and evening, rain coverage and rainfall rates will taper off considerably. It may feel like this event is coming to an end. It's not. There are indications that one or more corridors of torrential rain could line up somewhere along or west of I-35 through the overnight hours when most of you are asleep, and if that rain is consistent, it could produce catastrophic rain totals between 6-12" over areas that have already seen many inches of rain this morning.
That kind of rain on saturated soil would quickly flood creeks, streams, and even major rivers. Is this guaranteed to happen? No, not by a long shot, but is it possible? Yes. Tropical moisture can never be trusted.
What do you need to do?
🔹Is your home near a creek/stream/river? Pretend that waterway is high enough to be flooding your home. Know your exit plan ahead of time so you can move to higher ground in a pinch.
🔹Does your normal commute take you over/through a creek/stream/river? Find another way to get where you are going. Check atxfloods.com before you go anywhere.
🔹Do you plan on sleeping Tuesday night? Make sure your phone is able to receive WEA (wireless emergency alerts). Make sure your phone volume is all the way up so that alert can wake you up. Find a backup option to receive those alerts (weather radio, TV, etc.)
Again, this is not set in stone, but you need to be prepared for the worst-case scenario should it unfold, and this data is just that. Hopefully trends go the other way and I'll be looking at every piece of data I can get my hands on with more updates as needed.